Nofima reports

Four Plausible Futures of Food. Navigating the future for sustainable and healthy plant-based protein in Norway: A scenario approach

Prexl, Katja-Maria; Gonera, Antje

Publication details

Publisher: Nofima AS

Issue: 12/2020

Number of pages: 47

International Standard Numbers:
Printed: 978-82-8296-628-3

Open Access: green


FoodProFuture (FPF) is a research project aiming for innovative, healthy, and sustainable exploitation of plant-based proteins in future foods in Norway and serves as a catalyst and initiator for the industrial uptake of knowledge, model products, technologies, and sustainability approaches. The development of different plausible future scenarios challenges existing biases and assumptions about what is possible and engages cu-riosity and imagination. The four FPF scenarios describe various possible development directions for the food system until 2040 illustrating the following four possible scenario questions: ”What if we ran out of food?”; “ What if we made climate positive food?”; “What if we let technology fix our food?” and “What if we became food role models?”. The scenario approach is an opportunity not only to prepare for change, reduce uncertain-ty, and jointly develop specific innovation ideas and concepts, but also to accelerate the shift towards more sustainable and profitable plant-based foods produced in Norway. We provide a tool that enables food system stakeholders to show and discuss alternative futures. We recommend using the scenarios to assess and renew the validity, robustness, and future-readiness of current strategies towards a more sustainable food system in Norway and to uncover new ideas for innovation.